Welcome to Metagame Mentor, your weekly guide to the top decks and latest Constructed developments on the path to the Pro Tour. This week, I'm taking a brief break from coverage of the ongoing Pioneer Regional Championships. Instead, I'll look at the biggest innovations in Standard and Modern since the release of The Brothers' War.
Regional Championship Qualifiers (RCQs) in these formats are happening right now. Until December 19, 2022, RCQs will feed the second round of Regional Championships, which will be held in February, March, or April 2023 depending on your region. After a holiday break, RCQs from January 7, 2023 through April 3, 2023 will feed the third round of Regional Championships, which will be held in May, June, or July 2023. Don't miss your chance to qualify by finding tournaments on the Store & Event Locator or your regional organizer's website.
Standard with The Brothers' War
To provide a metagame snapshot for Standard, I used all Magic Online decklists from Standard Challenge, Standard Last Chance, and Standard Showcase Qualifier events held from November 21 through December 12. In addition, I included all decklists with net positive records from Standard tournaments on MTG Melee from the same time period, which captures the last three weeks of competition.
After correcting archetypes and assigning to each deck a number of points equal to its number of match wins minus its number of match losses, I derived the following record-weighted metagame breakdown. It may be interpreted as a winner's metagame that you can expect to see at the top tables. Archetype names hyperlink to a well-performing decklist closest to the aggregate of the archetype. Up and down arrows signify the biggest changes compared to my metagame roundup from early November, right before the release of The Brothers' War.
Archetype | Record-Weighted Metagame Share |
---|---|
1. Grixis Midrange | 36.8% |
2. Mono-White Midrange | 12.5% ↑↑ |
3. Mono-Red Aggro | 6.4% ↑↑ |
4. Esper Midrange | 5.6% ↓↓ |
5. Mardu Midrange | 5.5% ↑↑ |
6. Rakdos Midrange | 4.7% |
7. Azorius Soldiers | 3.9% ↑↑ |
8. Mono-Black Aggro | 3.9% |
9. Mono-Blue Tempo | 3.1% ↓↓ |
10. Grixis Sacrifice | 2.7% ↑↑ |
11. Esper Legends | 2.0% |
13. Jund Midrange | 1.8% ↓↓ |
12. Boros Midrange | 1.7% |
14. Izzet Control/Tempo | 0.8% ↓↓ |
15. Other | 8.6% |
The "Other" category contains such deck archetypes as Grixis Control, Rakdos Sacrifice, Mardu Angels, Mono-White Soldiers, Mono-White Aggro, Bant Soldiers, Dimir Midrange, Boros Reanimator, Azorius Control, Azorius Heroic, Jund Sacrifice, The Kami War, Izzet Ramp, Mono-Red Ramp, Boros Aggro, Four-Color Midrange, Mono-Green Aggro, Orzhov Midrange, Esper Control, and Mono-Red Midrange.
At 36.8% of the winner's metagame, Grixis Midrange continues its domination of Standard. The deck won the World Championship in the hands of Nathan Steuer, and it hasn't slowed down after the release of The Brothers' War. Grixis has the best threats, interaction, and card advantage across blue, black, and red, and there are various ways to build it. But no matter how you slice it, you can control the early game with
Yet cards from the new set have led to substantial Standard metagame shifts. The top 10 most-played new cards from The Brothers' War across my 450-decklist data set have boosted existing Standard archetypes and delivered new ones:
Go for the Throat (876 copies): An efficient removal spell with a nearly negligible restriction as the downside. In many black midrange decks, it has replacedInfernal Grasp .Brotherhood's End (514 copies): A three-mana sweeper that is particularly potent against aggro decks. It's mostly a sideboard card, but various Rakdos Midrange decks have even included it in their main decks.Mishra's Foundry (286 copies): A creature land that fits into mana base that already has more than enough colored sources.Mishra's Foundry has made its way into nearly every mono-color deck.Lay Down Arms (231 copies): A removal spell that can take out opposing creatures at an extremely mana-efficient rate. It has led to the emergence of Mono-White Midrange, which has enough Plains for the card to shine.Phyrexian Fleshgorger (205 copies): A flexible creature that punishesAbrade and other removal spells. It has enhanced the creature curve of Mono-Black Aggro in particular.Underground River (199 copies): A pain land that improves the consistency at which you can cast your blue and black spells. It has enhanced the mana base of Esper Midrange, Grixis Sacrifice, and so on.Steel Seraph (174 copies): A flexible creature that not only provides an immediate combat effect but also dodgesGo for the Throat ,Cut Down , andDestroy Evil . It has found a home in Mono-White Midrange and Mardu Midrange.Loran of the Third Path (170 copies): A way to add to the battlefield while destroyingReckoner Bankbuster ,Oni-Cult Anvil , orWedding Announcement . It's mostly a sideboard card, but various Esper Legends decks have even included it in their main decks.Gix, Yawgmoth Praetor (146 copies): A powerful creature that makes cheap, difficult-to-block creatures more curious. Gix synergizes well withEvolved Sleeper ,Misery's Shadow , andPhyrexian Fleshgorger , and it has given mono-black decks a more aggressive orientation.Monastery Swiftspear (116 copies): A Pioneer and Modern staple that has now also found its way into Standard. It has revitalized Mono-Red Aggro.
So these are the top new cards, but what do the new decks look like? If you last played Standard right before The Brothers' War, then the following five decklists should get you back up to speed.
Mono-White Midrange, at 12.5% of the record-weighted metagame, is now the top non-black midrange deck in Standard.
Mono-Red Aggro, at 6.4% of the winner's metagame, has surged after The Brothers' War added
Mardu Midrange, at 5.5% of the record-weighted metagame, is a relatively new development. It exploits several new cards from The Brothers' War (
Modern with The Brothers' War
To provide a metagame snapshot for Modern, I used all Magic Online decklists from Modern Preliminary, Modern Challenge, Modern Last Chance, and Modern Showcase Qualifier events held from November 21 through December 12. I added all decklists with net positive records from Modern tournaments on MTG Melee from the same time period, plus all Top 8 decklists from the RCQ at Spielepyramide Karlsruhe, RCQ at Apex Gaming, and 4Seasons Tournament.
After correcting archetypes and assigning to each deck a number of points equal to its number of match wins minus its number of match losses, I derived the following record-weighted metagame breakdown. It may be interpreted as a winner's metagame that you can expect to see at the top tables. Archetype names hyperlink to a well-performing decklist closest to the aggregate of the archetype. Up and down arrows to signify the biggest changes compared to my metagame roundup from early November, right before the release of The Brothers' War.
Archetype | Record-Weighted Metagame Share |
---|---|
1. Izzet Murktide | 13.4% |
2. Hammer Time | 11.9% ↑↑ |
3. Rakdos Undying | 10.2% ↑↑ |
4. Jeskai Breach | 5.7% |
5. Four-Color Omnath | 5.3% |
6. Rhinos | 4.9% |
7. Four/Five-Color Creativity | 4.2% ↓↓ |
8. Burn | 3.9% |
9. Domain Zoo | 3.7% |
10. Yawgmoth | 3.2% |
11. Izzet Prowess | 2.8% ↑↑ |
12. Amulet Titan | 2.6% |
13. Living End | 2.2% |
14. Jund Reanimator | 2.1% ↑↑ |
15. Merfolk | 1.8% |
16. Azorius Control | 1.7% |
17. Hardened Scales | 1.4% |
18. Shift to Light | 1.4% |
19. Mono-Green Tron | 1.3% |
20. Steelseeker Food | 1.2% |
21. Jund Midrange | 1.1% |
22. Eldrazi Tron | 1.1% |
23. Temur Scapeshift | 0.9% |
24. Mill | 0.9% |
25. Affinity | 0.8% |
25. Other | 10.1% |
The "Other" category contains such deck archetypes as Urza ThopterSword, Glimpse of Tomorrow, Rakdos Midrange, Belcher, Goblins, Grixis Shadow, Prison Tron, Humans, Four-Color Control, Jeskai Stoneblade, Insects, Temur Breach, Mono-Red Obosh, Dredge, Devoted Druid, Gruul Breach, Twiddle Breach, Ponza, Asmo Turns, Bant Stoneblade, Rakdos Shadow, CrabVine, and Enchantress.
With
Indeed, the top 10 most-played new cards from The Brothers' War across my 944-decklist data set had a noticeable impact on the Modern format:
Brotherhood's End (161 copies): A reliable sweeper against aggro decks and artifact decks that excels against Hammer Time, where both modes are relevant. It's almost solely a sideboard card, most commonly seen in Izzet Murktide lists.Haywire Mite (135 copies): An efficient answer to troublesome permanents likeUrza's Saga orLeyline Binding . As it serves as a tutor target, it's found a home in the main deck ofUrza's Saga decks likeHardened Scales and Hammer Time. (The white-blue Hammer Time variant remains most prominent, but white-green is on the rise.)Haywire Mite is also seen in the sideboard ofChord of Calling decks like Yawgmoth and in the sideboard ofKarn, the Great Creator decks like Mono-Green Tron. It has even empowered a brand new Insects archetype!Bitter Reunion (113 copies): An enabler for the cardPersist that can immediately grant haste toArchon of Cruelty orPrimeval Titan . It has found a home in severalIndomitable Creativity decks and has fueled the new Jund Reanimator archetype.The Stone Brain (81 copies): A solid answer to single-card combos likeIndomitable Creativity ,Living End , orScapeshift . As an artifact,The Stone Brain a big deal for all Tron decks withKarn, the Great Creator . Likewise, it's a great sideboard tool for decks with metalcraft or artifact synergies, such as Hammer Time andHardened Scales .Third Path Iconoclast (66 copies): A massive improvement onYoung Pyromancer because it synergizes withMishra's Bauble and creates artifacts.Third Path Iconoclast has been doing a lot of work in Izzet Prowess, which has had a resurgence. It can also act as an alternative win condition in Jeskai Breach: A few decks have cutThassa's Oracle , unlockedJegantha, the Wellspring as a companion, and aim to win the game by sacrificing enough Soldier tokens toGrinding Station to mill out the opponent.Mishra's Research Desk (34 copies): A new value card that acts as a tutor target forUrza's Saga . The most prominentUrza's Saga decks where it has found a home are Jeskai Breach and newcomer Steelseeker Food.Sarinth Steelseeker (30 copies): A way to generate a lot of velocity for artifact-laden decks with graveyard synergies. It has spawned an entirely new archetype in Steelseeker Food.Scrapwork Mutt (29 copies): An enabler and a payoff forSarinth Steelseeker .Scrapwork Mutt is almost solely seen in this new archetype.Forging the Anchor (23 copies): A sorcery that can potentially draw five cards for three mana.Forging the Anchor has revitalized Affinity.Arcane Proxy (20 copes): A way to cast suspend cards likeCrashing Footfalls from the graveyard.Arcane Proxy has been included in various Rhinos decks.
So these are the top new cards, but what do the new decks look like? If you last played Modern right before The Brothers' War, then the following five decklists should get you back up to speed.
Izzet Prowess, at 2.8% of the record-weighted metagame, has surged ahead since the release of The Brothers' War. The archetype takes advantage of the prowess mechanic on its creatures by playing a burst of cheap card draw spells and flashback spells. With a pair of
Jund Reanimator, at 2.1% of the winner's metagame, can lead with Thoughseize on turn one, discards
A few versions run
Steelseeker Food, at 1.2% of the record-weighted metagame, is AspiringSpike's latest innovation. The appetizing strategy revolves around the existing
Affinity has returned to the spotlight after The Brothers' War added
When I first looked at
Looking Ahead
Next week, I'll return to Pioneer. I'm looking forward to analyzing last weekend's Regional Championship for West Canada and this weekend's Regional Championship for Mexico/Central America/Caribbean. For anyone participating in an RCQ or Regional Championship this weekend: Good luck, and have fun!